How to predict divorce
In the years that I’ve been treating couples, a theme has been overwhelmingly apparent; couples who engage frequently in negative communication styles struggle. It sounds overly simplistic and obvious but how often in your relationship do you notice the same old issue flaring up or that the same type of words are slung at you every time you enter conflict with your partner? If this is you, I highly recommend you to read on!!!
Thanks to decades of research we can now predict with 91 percent accuracy whether a relationship will fail or succeed. I don’t know about you, but I think those are pretty phenomenal odds. So, what are the red flags we need to look out for and how do we rectify them?
Dr John Gottman is, once again, the hero behind this research. Thanks to him, all it takes is roughly 15 minutes in a couple’s session for me to see whether a relationship has a chance of survival. That might sound like a very short amount of time to predict the chances of a relationship but we look for some very specific things during this time frame.
In session, I ask couples to spend about 15 minutes trying to resolve an ongoing disagreement, whilst I sit back, like a fly on the wall to observe the interaction. The couple are asked to wear pulse oximeters. This might sound strange and slightly sadistic but I shall explain the reasoning. As the couple engages in this quarrel the sensors pick up their stress levels, allowing me to have a physiological marker to see when they enter into a state called ‘flooding’. Essentially this signals to me whether an individual is in a state of alarm or defence (“diffuse physiological arousal”) during the interaction with their partner.
This mini window into what it might look like at home gives me a picture of how conflict is managed, despite how artificial it might be. Conflict is normal and all relationships will encounter conflict, but it's the way that couples argue that is the key.
The Four Horseman
From Gottman’s research we are able to pay attention to markers in a relationship that spell disaster but one of the most obvious are those negative communication patterns and styles. He refers to them as ‘The Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse”.
One of the first steps in managing conflict is to identify and counteract ‘the four horsemen’ so that conflict in your relationship can provide opportunities for growth and understanding. Couples who stay stuck in these patterns put themselves at severe risk of future and enduring problems. Listed below are the The Four Horseman and how to stop them in their tracks:
1. Criticism
This is where you verbally attack your partner’s personality or character.
“I’m so sick of listening to your talk about yourself. It’s all about you, isn’t it? You are so self-involved?”
To counteract this horseman you need to complain without blame. We can do this by using a ‘gentle start-up’. Focus on using an “I” statement and then ask your partner to fulfil your unmet need, with “I need”.
Model: “I’m feeling a little left out right now in this conversation and I really need to vent. Can we please talk about my day for a bit?”
2. Contempt
This is where you attack your partner’s sense of self with an intent to insult or abuse them. This usually shows up in statements that come from a place of superiority and include sarcasm, cynicism, mockery or eye-rolling. Contempt is one of the deadliest horsemen and is the greatest predictor of divorce.
“You forgot to hang out the laundry again? You’re just so lazy aren’t you (eye roll) - I can’t rely on you to do anything!"
To counteract this one we want to build a culture of fondness and admiration in the relationship. One of the Gottman’s mottos is ‘small things often’. To regularly express appreciation, gratitude, respect and affection for your partner. To see their differences in a positive light this acts as a buffer for those negative feelings. Let’s put it this way the more positive you feel, the less likely you will need or want to express contempt.
Model: “I really get how busy you’ve been lately, but it would mean the world to me if you could please remember to hang out the laundry when I’m working late. I’d really appreciate it.”
3. Defensiveness
We naturally want to protect and defend our own position, particularly when we feel like we’ve been wrongly accused of something. However, defensiveness misses the point and it can quickly lead to a blame game.
“It’s not my fault that we’re going to be late. It’s because you take so long getting ready and always leave it to the last second!”
To counteract this horseman you have to take responsibility for your part of the conflict and ideally work towards a compromise. Challenge yourself to see your partners side of things; to understand their experience and to investigate their perspective.
Model: “I really don’t like being late. We don’t have to leave so early next time and hopefully things won’t feel so rushed. Let’s both work at getting ready earlier too.”
4. Stonewalling
This is when someone completely withdraws from the conflict or discussion and no longer responds to their partner, or leaves the room. This usually occurs when an individual feels flooded, so the function of stonewalling is to shut down and relieve some of that emotional pressure.
“I can’t take any more of this; we’ve been over this time and time again, I’m so sick of talking about it— “
To counteract this one to best thing to do is take a time-out. From longitudinal studies, the Gottman’s’ discovered that if they interrupted couples after their 15 minute argument and told them that they needed to “adjust the equipment”, whilst ,asking them to read magazines for 30 minutes it had a big effect on the argument. Once the couples started talking again their heart rates were significantly lower and their interactions and outcomes were far more positive. During this time, each partner was able to soothe themselves. So, the antidote here is physiological self-soothing and to be able to do that, we need to take a breather.
“I’m sorry to interrupt you, but I’m feeling really overwhelmed right now and I need to take a breather. Can we have a 20 minute break and then talk?”
Where to next?
Well now that you know what these horsemen look like and how to stop them in their tracks, it’s up to you to start practicing this in real life. As soon as you see these bad guys galloping in, remember the antidotes and try your best to keep them at bay. These skills can be game changers, but they take patience and practice. Be gentle with you and your partner here as you learn these new skills.
Need more help in this area? This month in The Happiness Hub we delve into “Conflict + Communication: Step-by-step practical skills to a healthier relationship”.
